All results are based on a point-working day forecast of 36.97 or 37 days obtained after a series of data analyses.
For the last NLE results (December 2010), Bazics Newsfeeds made an 8-working day (February 10-21, 2011) release date forecast. Its 5-working day prediction, February 14-18, 2011, matched to the actual release date while the 2-working day (February 18 & 20) forecast was just 1-working day late from the actual release date, February 17, 2011, which happened because it used 85,802 (an estimate made by the PRC prior to the release of results) as the total number of examinees and not the actual total number of examinees, 84,827.
Our forecast was based on a data analysis made by a professional statistician or analyst. He used a powerful statistical tool to create a model to predict such date/s and not on guessing as what the other websites did in the last NLE results. The false (hoax) release date got the attention of the netizens and even the BoN member Sto. Tomas. Mr. Sto. Tomas then made an official statement that the very early release date is NOT true and beyond his knowledge.
The graph tells us the speed of PRC-BoN in processing results of NLE from 2001 t0 2010. It informs us that the taller the bar the slower the PRC had processed the exam results; the shorter the bar the faster it had processed the nursing board exam results.
Based on the graph, one can tell that the Board of Nursing was slowest in 2001 (processed only 886 or 963 examinees per working day), which has only more or less than 4,000 examinees. Considering more than 40,000 examinees (2006-2010), the board was slowest in 2007 (processed only 1,159 or 1,188 examinees per working day (please see table embedded below)). Since 2006, the board has processed the results the fastest in the November 2009 NLE (processed 2,362 examinees per working day, third to the PRC-BoN history).
After some adjustment of the model, we decided to use 0.046214 as the checking ratio (processing results) model value to forecast the number of working days the July NLE results is released. Hence, we expect the July 2011 Nursing Board Exam results will be released in thirty-seven (37) working days from the last day of examination.
NOTE: Before the Board of Nursing went on “quarantine” which started on June 23, 2011 until July 3, 2011, BoN member Marco Antonio Sto Tomas announced a roughly estimate of 79,598 who were expected to take the exam. Later reports say, more than 80,000 took the July 2011 NLE. Hence, we used 80,000 examinees to forecast number of working days. If we only have the actual value, then we could have a more accurate model.
Below is our prediction of July 2011 NLE Results release date:
- 7-day forecast = AUGUST 19, 22-26, 29 (2011)
- 5-day forecast = AUGUST 22-26, 2011
- 2-day forecast = August 23-24, 2011